{"id":35865,"date":"2025-10-20T13:54:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T11:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35865"},"modified":"2026-08-20T14:02:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-20T12:02:02","slug":"2035-combustion-engine-car-phase-out-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/consumption-minute\/2035-combustion-engine-car-phase-out-europe","title":{"rendered":"2035 combustion-engine car phase-out: why is Europe\u2019s transition roadmap under pressure?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On&nbsp;<strong>18 April 2023<\/strong>, Europe approved the framework intended to bring sales of new combustion-engine cars to an end from 2035, as part of the European Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two and a half years later, the timetable was increasingly being questioned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The debate was no longer simply about the principle of electrification, but about&nbsp;<strong>whether the transition could be achieved at the expected pace<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New-car sales remained weak across Europe, electric vehicles were gaining market share more slowly than anticipated, and political opposition was reaching the highest levels including an official call from the German Chancellor in early October for the 2035 framework to be reconsidered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why was the transition falling behind its expected trajectory? What does regulatory uncertainty cost the automotive industry? And why can unclear rules have such a powerful effect on motorists\u2019 purchasing decisions?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Mobility Minute #10 | Europe\u2019s road to 2035 is getting bumpy \ud83d\ude35\u200d\ud83d\udcab\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kP-CU3pMqcw?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key figures on Europe\u2019s 2035 automotive transition<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 the 2035 framework was approved in\u00a0<strong>April 2023<\/strong>\u00a0as part of the European Green Deal<br>\u2013 the objective applies to\u00a0<strong>new combustion-engine cars from 2035<\/strong><br>\u2013 the wider European objective is\u00a0<strong>carbon neutrality by 2050<\/strong><br>\u2013 at the time of the October 2025 analysis, battery-electric vehicles represented around\u00a0<strong>15% of new-car sales<\/strong><br>\u2013 the expected trajectory at that point was closer to\u00a0<strong>25%<\/strong><br>\u2013 this represented a gap of approximately\u00a0<strong>10 percentage points<\/strong>\u00a0between market reality and the implied trajectory<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the full year 2025, battery-electric vehicles ultimately reached&nbsp;<strong>17.4% of European new-car sales<\/strong>, representing approximately&nbsp;<strong>1.9 million registrations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This consolidated figure was higher than the share observed earlier in the year, but still well below the trajectory initially expected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong>Read also: electric cars in Europe, 1.9 million registrations in 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Three factors putting the 2035 transition under pressure<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>1. Europe\u2019s new-car market remains structurally weak<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">New-car sales in Europe remain at relatively low levels, creating difficulties throughout the automotive value chain.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This matters directly for the environmental transition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A change in the composition of the car fleet depends on new vehicles entering the market and progressively replacing older ones.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the new-car market remains weak,\u00a0<strong>fleet renewal slows and so does real-world decarbonisation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The composition of Europe\u2019s existing vehicle fleet illustrates the scale of the challenge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are around&nbsp;<strong>255 million cars on European roads<\/strong>, with an average age of approximately&nbsp;<strong>12.5 years<\/strong>, while fully electric vehicles represent only around&nbsp;<strong>2.3% of the existing fleet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Changing new-car sales is one thing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Transforming a stock of 255 million vehicles is another.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2. Electric vehicle adoption was around ten points behind the expected trajectory<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the time of the October 2025 analysis, electric cars accounted for around&nbsp;<strong>15% of new-car sales<\/strong>, compared with an expected trajectory closer to 25%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A ten-percentage-point gap is not simply a statistical difference.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It means that the actual pace of adoption was falling behind the path on which the 2035 deadline implicitly depended.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The wider the gap becomes, the greater the acceleration required later in the transition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That creates significant challenges for manufacturers, infrastructure providers and consumers alike.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Over the full year, the electric share eventually reached\u00a0<strong>17.4%<\/strong>, showing continued progress but also confirming that the market remained significantly below the earlier 25% benchmark.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>3. Political opposition has moved to the highest level<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Calls to reconsider the 2035 framework have increasingly entered mainstream European political debate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the most significant came from Germany, whose Chancellor called in early October for the policy to be reassessed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Germany\u2019s position carries particular weight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is Europe\u2019s largest national automotive market and home to manufacturers whose industrial strategies and investments depend directly on the pace of the transition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the issue extends far beyond Germany.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any change to the timetable or regulatory framework affects investment decisions throughout the European automotive industry.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The real cost of uncertainty: consumers wait<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is one of the most important effects of the debate and one that can be overlooked when attention focuses only on industrial policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Regulatory uncertainty does not only create problems for manufacturers. It can also freeze consumer demand.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For motorists, the choice becomes complicated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Should they buy a combustion-engine vehicle that may lose value more quickly?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Should they buy an electric vehicle when subsidies, charging infrastructure and regulations continue to evolve?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Or should they simply wait?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For many households, postponing the purchase can become the rational response.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That wait-and-see behaviour has two reinforcing effects:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 it slows fleet renewal, delaying the replacement of older, higher-emission vehicles<br>\u2013 it keeps new-car sales weak, adding further pressure to the automotive industry<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This creates a genuine paradox.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A regulatory framework designed to accelerate the transition can, if consumers become uncertain about how it will be applied, contribute to delaying purchasing decisions and slowing fleet renewal.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer choices in 2025 also illustrate this search for compromise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hybrid vehicles remained the dominant powertrain category in Europe, accounting for around\u00a0<strong>44% of registrations<\/strong> more than twice the share of fully electric cars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For many motorists, hybrid technology can represent an intermediate choice in a market where the final direction of travel feels clear but the transition path remains uncertain.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the 2035 debate reveals about Europe\u2019s car market<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three broader lessons emerge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Regulatory visibility is an economic factor<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stable regulation is not only an environmental policy issue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It directly influences investment by manufacturers, infrastructure providers and households.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When rules are expected to change, economic actors have an incentive to wait.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A regulatory trajectory must remain credible<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Targets influence behaviour only if households and companies believe they can realistically be achieved.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A substantial gap between market adoption and the expected trajectory raises questions about how quickly the transition can be delivered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Industrial health and environmental objectives are interconnected<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supporting the automotive industry and reducing emissions are not necessarily opposing objectives.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Without sufficient new-car sales, Europe\u2019s existing vehicle fleet renews more slowly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And without fleet renewal, replacing older combustion-engine vehicles with lower-emission alternatives also takes longer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is one of the central questions explored by the&nbsp;<strong>Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study<\/strong>, which identifies five potential levers for supporting a recovery in the sector.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49&nbsp;<strong>Discover the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div style=\"height:0px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div style=\"height:0px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Europe\u2019s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why is Europe\u2019s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out being questioned?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Three factors are putting the roadmap under pressure: a persistently\n      weak new-car market, electric vehicle adoption below the expected\n      trajectory, and growing political opposition, particularly in Germany.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>How large was the gap between electric vehicle sales and the expected trajectory?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      At the time of the October 2025 analysis, fully electric cars\n      represented around 15% of European new-car sales, compared with a\n      trajectory closer to 25% a gap of approximately ten percentage points.\n      The full-year 2025 share ultimately reached 17.4%.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why does regulatory uncertainty affect the automotive market?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Uncertainty encourages consumers to postpone purchases. If motorists\n      are unsure which powertrain to choose or how regulations and incentives\n      will evolve, keeping their existing vehicle for longer can become the\n      safest option.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Can regulatory uncertainty slow the environmental transition?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Yes. If uncertainty delays new-car purchases, fleet renewal also slows.\n      Older vehicles remain on the road for longer, delaying the replacement\n      of higher-emission cars.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>When was the 2035 framework approved?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The European framework was approved in 2023 as part of the European\n      Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality\n      by 2050.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div style=\"height:25px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe\u2019s framework to phase out sales of new combustion-engine cars from&nbsp;<strong>2035<\/strong>&nbsp;forms part of the broader European Green Deal and its objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By late 2025, three factors were putting that trajectory under pressure:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>a persistently weak new-car market, electric vehicle adoption below the expected path, and growing political opposition at the highest level.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the time of the October analysis, electric vehicles accounted for around&nbsp;<strong>15% of new-car sales<\/strong>, compared with an expected trajectory closer to 25%. Over the full year, their share ultimately reached&nbsp;<strong>17.4%, representing approximately 1.9 million vehicles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But one of the most important consequences of the debate is not purely industrial.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Regulatory uncertainty can create wait-and-see behaviour among motorists, encouraging them to postpone vehicle purchases.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That slows fleet renewal and potentially slows the environmental transition the regulation was designed to accelerate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49&nbsp;<strong>Read also: the economic importance of culture in France<\/strong><br>\ud83d\udc49&nbsp;<strong>Back to the October 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On&nbsp;18 April 2023, Europe approved the framework intended to bring sales of new combustion-engine cars to an end from 2035, as part of the European Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Two and a half years later, the timetable was increasingly being questioned. The debate was no longer simply [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495,1496],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute","category-consumption-minute"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>2035 combustion-engine car phase-out: why is Europe\u2019s roadmap under pressure?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Europe\u2019s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out is under pressure as EV adoption lags expectations and uncertainty weighs on new-car demand.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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