{"id":35870,"date":"2025-09-20T14:12:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T12:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35870"},"modified":"2026-08-24T12:16:58","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T10:16:58","slug":"global-automotive-market-2025-asia-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/global-automotive-market-2025-asia-growth","title":{"rendered":"Global automotive market 2025: why is Asia driving almost all the growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global car sales are expected to increase by&nbsp;<strong>1.5% in 2025<\/strong>, bringing the market close to&nbsp;<strong>90 million vehicles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At global level, that makes 2025 look like a positive year for the automotive industry.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the headline figure hides three very different trajectories.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Asia is accelerating: China is expected to reach&nbsp;<strong>27 million units, up 4.5%<\/strong>, Japan is growing by more than 4%, and India is set to pass the&nbsp;<strong>five-million-vehicle threshold for the first time<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe is broadly flat at&nbsp;<strong>11.3 million vehicles<\/strong>, while the United States is expected to decline by&nbsp;<strong>2.5% to around 15.5 million units<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why are Western markets losing momentum? What does India crossing five million vehicles mean for the industry? And why does Europe remain structurally below its pre-pandemic level?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Mobility Minute #9 | A world tour of the automotive market ?\ufe0f\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/JRr3zgqGAKE?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key figures for the global automotive market in 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th><strong>Market<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Expected volume<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Change<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World<\/td><td>nearly 90 million<\/td><td>+1.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China<\/td><td>27 million<\/td><td>+4.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>United States<\/td><td>around 15.5 million<\/td><td>-2.5%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>11.3 million<\/td><td>stable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>India<\/td><td>more than 5 million<\/td><td>+3%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>+4%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>China has been the world\u2019s largest car market since 2009<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With&nbsp;<strong>27 million vehicles expected in 2025<\/strong>, China alone represents close to&nbsp;<strong>30% of the global automotive market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is more than the United States and Europe combined.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China\u2019s leadership is not new. It has been the world\u2019s largest car market since 2009.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What stands out in 2025 is therefore not the country\u2019s number-one position but the fact that such a large market is&nbsp;<strong>still growing by 4.5%<\/strong>, while mature Western markets are stagnating or declining.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Strong domestic demand is also accompanied by extraordinary industrial scale.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China produces close to&nbsp;<strong>30 million vehicles a year<\/strong>, accounting for roughly 40% of global automotive production.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/en-global-car-production-2025-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: global automotive production China accounts for almost 40% of cars produced<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>India crosses a major threshold<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India passing&nbsp;<strong>five million vehicles for the first time<\/strong>&nbsp;is one of the most important developments in the 2025 market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is a symbolic threshold, but also an industrial one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A domestic market of this scale is large enough to justify:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 dedicated production lines;<br>\u2013 market-specific vehicle ranges;<br>\u2013 local supplier ecosystems;<br>\u2013 long-term industrial investment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With growth of around&nbsp;<strong>3%<\/strong>&nbsp;and vehicle ownership still relatively low compared with the size of its population, India retains a potential for expansion that mature automotive markets no longer have.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why are Western markets losing momentum?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The United States and Europe are both under pressure, but for different reasons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>In the United States, trade policy is weighing on the market<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US market is expected to decline by&nbsp;<strong>2.5% to around 15.5 million vehicles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the main factors is the impact of tariffs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tariffs can increase the cost of imported vehicles and components, disrupt supply chains and ultimately affect both retail prices and sales volumes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US slowdown therefore has a strong trade-policy dimension.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>In Europe, weakness has become structural<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe is expected to remain broadly stable at&nbsp;<strong>11.3 million vehicles<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that stability can be misleading.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European market remains well below the levels recorded before the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, Europe is no longer contracting sharply but it is not recovering either.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It appears to have settled on a structurally lower plateau than before 2020.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">National markets also differ significantly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">France has been declining, while Spain has performed more strongly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This highlights an important reality: there is no single uniform European car market, but rather a collection of national markets with different economic conditions and consumer dynamics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What this global shift means for Europe\u2019s automotive industry<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three lessons emerge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Global automotive growth no longer automatically benefits European manufacturers<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Growth is increasingly concentrated in markets where European brands face intense competition from well-established local manufacturers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The geographical centre of market expansion is moving towards Asia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Europe\u2019s weak new-car market slows fleet renewal<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A stagnant new-car market means older vehicles remain on the road for longer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe\u2019s existing car fleet is already around&nbsp;<strong>12.5 years old on average<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Slower renewal therefore affects not only the industry but also the pace of the energy transition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Part of Europe\u2019s weakness reflects delayed demand rather than lost demand<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economic uncertainty can encourage households to postpone major purchases such as cars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not necessarily mean consumers have abandoned these purchases permanently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In many cases, the demand still exists it has simply moved into the future.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Global automotive market 2025<\/h3>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why is the global automotive market growing while Europe stagnates?<\/h4>\n    <p>\n      Growth is being driven mainly by Asia. China is expected to grow by\n      4.5%, Japan by more than 4% and India by around 3%, while Europe\n      remains broadly flat and the United States is expected to decline\n      by 2.5%.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why is the US automotive market declining in 2025?<\/h4>\n    <p>\n      The market is being affected in part by tariffs, which increase the\n      cost of imported vehicles and components and can disrupt automotive\n      supply chains.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h3>Why does Europe remain below its pre-pandemic car sales level?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Europe appears to have stabilised at a lower level than before 2020.\n      Current stability therefore reflects an absence of further decline\n      rather than a full return to pre-pandemic market conditions.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Since when has China been the world\u2019s largest automotive market?<\/h4>\n    <p>\n      China has been the world\u2019s largest car market since 2009. In 2025,\n      it is expected to represent close to 30% of global vehicle sales.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why is India passing five million vehicle sales significant?<\/h4>\n    <p>\n      Crossing five million units places India among the small group of\n      markets large enough to justify dedicated production capacity,\n      specific vehicle ranges and major long-term industrial investment.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global car sales are expected to reach&nbsp;<strong>nearly 90 million units in 2025<\/strong>, an increase of around 1.5%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But growth is highly concentrated in Asia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">China, the world\u2019s largest automotive market since 2009, is expected to reach&nbsp;<strong>27 million vehicles, up 4.5%<\/strong>. Japan is growing by more than 4%, while India is passing the&nbsp;<strong>five-million-unit threshold for the first time<\/strong>, with growth of around 3%.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By contrast, the United States is expected to fall by 2.5% to around&nbsp;<strong>15.5 million vehicles<\/strong>, while Europe remains broadly stable at&nbsp;<strong>11.3 million<\/strong>, still well below its pre-pandemic level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-la-consommation\/observatory-of-consumption-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Discover the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study<\/a><\/strong><br>?<a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/economic-uncertainty-households-postpone-purchases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0<strong>Read also: economic uncertainty and household wait-and-see behaviour<\/strong><\/a><br>?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-september-2025-car-market-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the September 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global car sales are expected to increase by&nbsp;1.5% in 2025, bringing the market close to&nbsp;90 million vehicles. At global level, that makes 2025 look like a positive year for the automotive industry. But the headline figure hides three very different trajectories. Asia is accelerating: China is expected to reach&nbsp;27 million units, up 4.5%, Japan is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35870","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35870","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1981"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35870"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35870\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35929,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35870\/revisions\/35929"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35870"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35870"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35870"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}