{"id":35873,"date":"2025-09-20T14:18:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-20T12:18:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35873"},"modified":"2026-09-11T14:35:35","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T12:35:35","slug":"economic-uncertainty-households-postpone-purchases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/consumption-minute\/economic-uncertainty-households-postpone-purchases","title":{"rendered":"Economic uncertainty: why do households postpone purchases rather than give them up?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The start of the 2025 season in France was marked by two forms of uncertainty:&nbsp;<strong>political uncertainty and budget uncertainty<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economics has a well-documented explanation for what happens in such situations.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Research consistently shows that uncertainty generates&nbsp;<strong>wait-and-see behaviour<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Households and businesses adopt a precautionary approach and delay decisions that are expensive, difficult to reverse or involve long-term commitments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there is another important factor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">French households can postpone many purchases because they are already&nbsp;<strong>highly equipped with durable goods<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How does this mechanism work? Why are some markets affected more than others? And what do previous economic shocks suggest about what happens when confidence returns?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Consumption Minute #9 | September in a climate of uncertainty ?\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Cy5jtjlhjaQ?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Worth noting : <\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 uncertainty generates wait-and-see behaviour among economic actors<br>\u2013 households and businesses adopt a precautionary approach to investment and major projects<br>\u2013 households often&nbsp;<strong>postpone purchases rather than abandon them altogether<\/strong><br>\u2013 high ownership levels of durable goods make those delays possible<br>\u2013 during previous shocks, households and businesses have shown a strong capacity to adapt, helping the economy remain resilient<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>How uncertainty turns into wait-and-see behaviour<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mechanism is relatively simple and widely documented in economic research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the future becomes difficult to read, households and businesses tend to focus less on optimising decisions and more on&nbsp;<strong>preserving their options<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Waiting is often relatively inexpensive.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Making the wrong decision can be costly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Postponement therefore becomes a rational strategy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This behaviour primarily affects purchases and investments that are both&nbsp;<strong>significant and deferrable<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a business, that may mean delaying an investment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a household, it may mean postponing the purchase of a car, furniture or a major appliance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Everyday spending is much less affected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is why uncertainty does not necessarily create a collapse in total consumption.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, it often creates a&nbsp;<strong>shift in timing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Demand has not disappeared.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has been postponed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why high ownership levels make postponement possible<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a particularly important part of the analysis.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wait-and-see behaviour is not purely psychological.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It also requires a&nbsp;<strong>material condition<\/strong>: households need to be able to continue using something they already own.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A household can postpone replacing a car because it already has one.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It can delay buying a new sofa because the existing sofa still works.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">France is a mature consumer market where household ownership of many durable goods is already very high.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That maturity is often seen as a structural limitation on further consumption growth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But in periods of uncertainty, it has another consequence:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>it makes postponement relatively painless.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, markets based primarily on replacement cycles are often the first to weaken:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 automotive<br>\u2013 furniture<br>\u2013 household appliances<br>\u2013 home equipment<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These purchases are highly deferrable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same effect can be seen in Europe\u2019s car fleet, where the average vehicle is now around&nbsp;<strong>12.5 years old<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Which types of spending are less affected by uncertainty?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The other side of the argument is equally revealing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If uncertainty hits durable goods because their replacement can be delayed, then spending that&nbsp;<strong>cannot be stored or postponed in the same way<\/strong>&nbsp;behaves differently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A concert, a festival, a restaurant meal or another leisure experience has a time dimension.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If consumers decide not to attend today, the opportunity may simply disappear.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These forms of spending therefore offer less scope for waiting.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This helps explain an apparent contradiction observed repeatedly in household behaviour:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">even when consumers are delaying major purchases, spending on&nbsp;<strong>leisure, culture and experiences can remain comparatively resilient<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cetelem Observatory research has documented this resilience over several decades.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Households are not necessarily consuming less across the board.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are&nbsp;<strong>changing what they postpone<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Durable goods can wait.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Experiences are harder to defer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/culture-france-household-spending-economic-impact\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: the economic importance of culture in France<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What previous economic shocks tell us<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One important distinction needs to be made:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>wait-and-see behaviour is not the same as economic collapse.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent years have brought several major shocks and periods of uncertainty.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In each case, households and businesses demonstrated significant adaptability, helping the economy absorb some of the impact.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This suggests two different time horizons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>In the short term<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Uncertainty weighs directly on replacement markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Postponement becomes one of the main ways households adjust their spending.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>In the medium term<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Postponed demand can become a reserve of future consumption.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An ageing car eventually needs replacing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A worn household appliance eventually fails.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furniture eventually needs renewing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Delaying these purchases therefore creates an accumulation of future needs that can be released once households regain greater visibility.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key question is therefore not necessarily&nbsp;<strong>whether<\/strong>&nbsp;these purchases will return, but&nbsp;<strong>when<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Economic uncertainty and purchasing behaviour<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why does economic uncertainty reduce household spending?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Uncertainty encourages wait-and-see behaviour. When the future is\n      difficult to predict, households and businesses adopt a precautionary\n      approach and delay major decisions because waiting can be less costly\n      than making the wrong choice.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Do households cancel purchases or simply postpone them?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Many major purchases are postponed rather than permanently cancelled.\n      Demand therefore shifts into the future and can reappear when households\n      regain confidence and visibility.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why can French households postpone so many purchases?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Because ownership levels for durable goods are already high. A household\n      can postpone replacing a car, sofa or appliance if it already owns one\n      that still works.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Which markets are most affected by wait-and-see behaviour?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Replacement markets for durable goods are particularly exposed,\n      including automotive, furniture, household appliances and other\n      home equipment.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Does uncertainty affect all forms of spending equally?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      No. Experiences such as cultural events, leisure activities or\n      restaurant visits are harder to postpone because the opportunity itself\n      may disappear. These categories can therefore prove more resilient than\n      durable-goods purchases.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Political and budget uncertainty generate a well-documented economic response:&nbsp;<strong>wait-and-see behaviour<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Households and businesses apply a precautionary approach and postpone major purchases and investments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In France, this behaviour is made easier by the already high level of household ownership of durable goods.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers can delay replacing a car, sofa or household appliance without immediately going without the product.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Replacement markets are therefore among the first to weaken.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By contrast, leisure and cultural spending can prove more resilient because experiences cannot be postponed in exactly the same way.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent shocks also suggest an important nuance: postponed demand does not necessarily disappear.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It can become a&nbsp;<strong>reserve of future consumption<\/strong>, ready to return when economic visibility improves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-la-consommation\/consumption-in-europe-the-quest-for-enjoyment-holds-firm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Discover the Cetelem Observatory Consumption 2025 study<\/a><\/strong><br>?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/global-automotive-market-2025-asia-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: the global automotive market in 2025<\/a><\/strong><br>?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-september-2025-car-market-uncertainty\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the September 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The start of the 2025 season in France was marked by two forms of uncertainty:&nbsp;political uncertainty and budget uncertainty. Economics has a well-documented explanation for what happens in such situations. Research consistently shows that uncertainty generates&nbsp;wait-and-see behaviour. Households and businesses adopt a precautionary approach and delay decisions that are expensive, difficult to reverse or involve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35644,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1496],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-consumption-minute"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35873","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1981"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35873"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35873\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35986,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35873\/revisions\/35986"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35644"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35873"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35873"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35873"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}