{"id":35889,"date":"2025-05-29T15:29:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-29T13:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35889"},"modified":"2026-08-24T14:21:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T12:21:06","slug":"global-air-travel-2025-passengers-airline-profitability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/global-air-travel-2025-passengers-airline-profitability","title":{"rendered":"Global air travel in 2025: why do record passenger numbers still produce thin margins?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">IATA forecasts point to a record-breaking year for global aviation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More than&nbsp;<strong>5.2 billion passengers<\/strong>&nbsp;are expected to travel worldwide, while airline revenues could cross the symbolic threshold of&nbsp;<strong>$1 trillion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Five years after the industry came close to a complete standstill, the recovery is remarkable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But profitability tells a very different story.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against approximately $1 trillion in revenue, the sector is expected to generate only around&nbsp;<strong>$38 billion in net profit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What do these records really mean? Why does profitability remain so limited despite enormous passenger volumes? And what does the recovery tell us about predictions of a post-pandemic \u201cnew normal\u201d?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Mobility Minute #7 | The global airline industry\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/42BUrwEvOvQ?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key figures for global air transport in 2025<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>According to IATA forecasts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 more than&nbsp;<strong>5.2 billion passengers<\/strong>&nbsp;worldwide, an all-time record<br>\u2013 around&nbsp;<strong>$1 trillion in total airline revenue<\/strong><br>\u2013 an average operating margin of approximately&nbsp;<strong>7%<\/strong><br>\u2013 around&nbsp;<strong>$70 billion in operating profit<\/strong><br>\u2013 approximately&nbsp;<strong>$38 billion in expected net profit<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>An industry that has moved beyond the pandemic<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scale of the turnaround is significant.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2020, international aviation came close to a complete standstill.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Borders closed, aircraft fleets were grounded and travel restrictions affected markets worldwide.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Five years later, the industry has not simply returned to its previous level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is expected to&nbsp;<strong>exceed it<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">More than 5.2 billion passengers would represent an all-time record rather than merely a return to normality.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The sector is also expected to pass another symbolic threshold:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>$1 trillion in annual revenue.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That places commercial aviation among the world\u2019s largest industries by economic activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Record volumes, but still relatively thin margins<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Revenue alone does not tell the full story.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Against approximately&nbsp;<strong>$1 trillion in revenue<\/strong>, expected net profit stands at around&nbsp;<strong>$38 billion<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That implies a net margin of roughly&nbsp;<strong>3.8%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The operating margin, at around 7%, is also relatively modest considering the scale of the industry.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The numbers become even more striking when viewed on a per-passenger basis.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dividing $38 billion in net profit by 5.2 billion passengers gives an average of around&nbsp;<strong>$7 in net profit per passenger<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Roughly the price of a sandwich at an airport.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is characteristic of the airline industry.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Its fixed and operating costs are exceptionally high:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 aircraft fleets<br>\u2013 fuel<br>\u2013 staff<br>\u2013 airport charges<br>\u2013 maintenance<br>\u2013 financing<br>\u2013 extensive operational infrastructure<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, intense price competition limits how much airlines can charge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The industry therefore operates on&nbsp;<strong>huge volumes and relatively small unit margins<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The broader lesson extends beyond aviation:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>record revenue does not necessarily mean exceptional financial health.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Passenger volumes measure activity.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Margins measure how much value the industry ultimately retains.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The post-pandemic \u201cnew normal\u201d did not unfold as expected<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This may be the most interesting lesson from the figures.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the pandemic, many predictions suggested consumer behaviour would change permanently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Business travel was expected to decline structurally because videoconferencing had become widespread.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers were expected to favour local tourism.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-distance mobility was often predicted to fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2025 traffic figures challenge those assumptions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Air passenger numbers have not simply recovered.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are expected to exceed their previous peak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This provides a useful methodological lesson.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A dramatic short-term disruption does not automatically create a permanent behavioural transformation.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumer habits can show considerable inertia.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once the conditions that caused the disruption disappear, previous behaviour can return more strongly than expected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That lesson applies far beyond aviation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trends observed during an exceptional period need to be treated cautiously before they are interpreted as permanent structural changes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is, however, an important counterexample.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European household savings have&nbsp;<strong>not<\/strong>&nbsp;returned to their pre-pandemic pattern.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The euro area savings rate remains around&nbsp;<strong>16% compared with roughly 12% before the crisis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The return to the pre-pandemic world is therefore neither universal nor uniform.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/european-household-savings-consumption-2026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: savings in Europe households continue to put aside 16% of their income<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Global air transport in 2025<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why do record passenger numbers not translate into high airline margins?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Airlines face very high fixed and operating costs, including aircraft,\n      fuel, staff, airport charges and maintenance. Strong price competition\n      also limits margins. Expected net profit of around $38 billion on\n      $1 trillion in revenue represents only about 3.8%.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>How much profit do airlines make per passenger?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Based on expected net profit of around $38 billion and more than\n      5.2 billion passengers, the industry earns approximately $7 in net\n      profit per passenger on average.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Has global aviation fully recovered from the pandemic?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Yes, in terms of passenger volumes. More than 5.2 billion passengers\n      are expected in 2025, which would represent an all-time record rather\n      than simply a return to pre-pandemic levels.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Did travel behaviour permanently change after the pandemic?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The 2025 passenger forecasts suggest that many predictions of a lasting\n      decline in air travel did not materialise. Global traffic has recovered\n      and is expected to exceed previous records.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What is IATA?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      IATA, the International Air Transport Association, is a global airline\n      industry organisation that represents airlines and publishes regular\n      data, forecasts and analysis on the aviation sector.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to IATA forecasts, global aviation is expected to reach a new record in 2025 with&nbsp;<strong>more than 5.2 billion passengers<\/strong>&nbsp;and around&nbsp;<strong>$1 trillion in revenue<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But record volumes do not translate into equally large profits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The industry is expected to generate an operating margin of around&nbsp;<strong>7%<\/strong>, approximately&nbsp;<strong>$70 billion in operating profit<\/strong>&nbsp;and only&nbsp;<strong>$38 billion in net profit<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That equates to roughly&nbsp;<strong>$7 in net profit per passenger<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Beyond the financial figures, the recovery also challenges many of the predictions made during the pandemic about permanent changes in travel behaviour.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Global air traffic has not merely returned.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It has moved beyond its previous peak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The broader lesson is clear:&nbsp;<strong>even severe short-term disruptions do not automatically produce permanent changes in consumer behaviour.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/egg-market-france-affordable-protein-growth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: the egg market in France<\/a><\/strong><br>?\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-may-2025-air-travel-eggs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the May 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>IATA forecasts point to a record-breaking year for global aviation. More than&nbsp;5.2 billion passengers&nbsp;are expected to travel worldwide, while airline revenues could cross the symbolic threshold of&nbsp;$1 trillion. Five years after the industry came close to a complete standstill, the recovery is remarkable. But profitability tells a very different story. Against approximately $1 trillion in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35649,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1981"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35889"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35889\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35939,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35889\/revisions\/35939"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35649"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}