{"id":35891,"date":"2025-04-20T15:39:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-20T13:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35891"},"modified":"2026-08-24T14:31:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T12:31:31","slug":"tariffs-who-pays-final-cost-consumers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/tariffs-who-pays-final-cost-consumers","title":{"rendered":"Tariffs: who ultimately pays the bill?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tariff is formally paid at the border by the importer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that does not tell us&nbsp;<strong>who ultimately bears the economic cost<\/strong> a question economists refer to as&nbsp;<strong>tax incidence<\/strong>&nbsp;or, more specifically, tariff incidence.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three actors can absorb all or part of the shock:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><div class=\"container\">\n<li>the exporting company<\/li>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<li>the importing company<\/li>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<li>the final consumer<\/li>\n<\/div><\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The distribution between them is neither fixed nor fully predictable in advance.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The experience of the 2018 US tariffs provides a useful benchmark. Research associated with the&nbsp;<strong>National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)<\/strong>&nbsp;found that around&nbsp;<strong>60% of the tariff increase was ultimately borne by American consumers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How is this burden distributed along the value chain? Why can consumers end up paying the largest share? And what are the wider economic consequences?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Consumption Minute #6 | Who will pay for the US tariffs?\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ZLMt98PbTio?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The three actors facing a tariff increase<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The exporting company<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An exporter can reduce its selling price to offset part of the tariff and preserve its competitiveness in the importing market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How much room it has to do so depends largely on competitive conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If its product can easily be replaced by alternatives, the company has greater pressure to cut prices in order to retain customers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the product has few substitutes, it may have more ability to maintain its pricing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The importing company<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The importer can absorb part of the shock by reducing its margin rather than passing the entire tariff increase on to customers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But this strategy usually has limits.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Few companies can sustain a significant reduction in profitability indefinitely.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tariff absorption by importers is therefore often&nbsp;<strong>partial or temporary<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The consumer<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consumer sits at the end of the chain.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any part of the tariff that has not been absorbed by the exporter or importer can ultimately appear in the retail price.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consumer has a structurally weaker position: they do not negotiate the wholesale price and generally face a simple choice between&nbsp;<strong>paying the new price, switching product or abandoning the purchase<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the 2018 tariff episode showed<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The tariffs introduced in 2018 provide a particularly useful case study because they generated a large body of economic research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One important finding was that around&nbsp;<strong>60% of the increase was ultimately borne by American consumers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This result is useful in two ways.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, it suggests that consumers can bear the largest share of the adjustment.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Businesses may absorb part of the shock, but a substantial portion can still be passed through to retail prices.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, it shows that tariff pass-through is not necessarily complete.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exporters and importers may absorb part of the cost through lower prices or lower margins, softening the immediate effect on households.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This provides a useful framework for analysing more recent tariff measures:&nbsp;<strong>the company paying the tariff at customs is not necessarily the economic actor that ultimately pays for it.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The expected chain of economic effects<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Once tariffs begin to pass through the economy, several effects can follow.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Higher short-term inflation<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher import costs can raise the prices of imported goods and of products that depend on imported components.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This can contribute to higher consumer-price inflation in the importing country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Pressure on household consumption<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If prices rise while incomes remain unchanged, households need to adjust.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They may:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 buy fewer products<br>\u2013 switch to cheaper alternatives<br>\u2013 postpone major purchases<br>\u2013 reduce spending elsewhere<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tariffs can therefore affect not only prices but also&nbsp;<strong>consumer demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>International spillover effects<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A slowdown in American household consumption can also affect exporters around the world.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The United States is a major destination for goods produced by many economies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If US demand weakens, the effect can spread through international supply chains and export markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is why Flavien Neuvy argues that higher tariffs can ultimately prove unfavourable not only to the US economy but also to the wider global economy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same mechanism can be observed in sectors such as automotive, where higher trade barriers can raise costs and weigh on volumes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A framework that goes beyond tariffs<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The concept of incidence is useful far beyond trade policy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With any indirect tax,&nbsp;<strong>the actor that formally pays the tax is not necessarily the actor that ultimately bears the cost<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The final burden depends on bargaining power, competition and the ability of buyers and sellers to change their behaviour.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same reasoning can apply to:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 environmental taxes<br>\u2013 sector-specific contributions<br>\u2013 changes in VAT<br>\u2013 regulatory charges<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In each case, the most useful question is not simply:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cWho pays the tax?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">but:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cWho ultimately bears the economic cost?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consumers often occupy a particularly exposed position because they sit at the end of the value chain.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Tariff incidence<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Who really pays tariffs?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Importers formally pay tariffs at the border, but the economic cost can\n      be shared between exporters, importers and consumers. Research on the\n      2018 US tariff episode found that consumers ultimately bore a substantial\n      share of the increase.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>How can an exporting company absorb part of a tariff?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      An exporter can reduce its selling price to offset part of the tariff\n      and remain competitive. Its ability to do so depends on competition\n      and how easily customers can substitute its product.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why can consumers end up paying the largest share?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Consumers sit at the end of the value chain. Any cost not absorbed by\n      exporters or importers can be passed through into retail prices, leaving\n      households to pay more, switch products or abandon the purchase.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What are the economic effects of higher tariffs?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Tariffs can increase inflation in the importing country, reduce household\n      consumption and create spillover effects for exporting economies when\n      demand weakens.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What is the NBER?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The National Bureau of Economic Research is a US economic research\n      organisation that publishes influential academic research on topics\n      including trade, taxation and consumer behaviour.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A tariff may be formally paid by the importer, but its economic cost can be distributed across three actors:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>the exporter<\/strong>, which may reduce prices;<br><strong>the importer<\/strong>, which may accept lower margins;<br>and&nbsp;<strong>the consumer<\/strong>, who pays whatever portion is ultimately passed through.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Research on the 2018 US tariff episode found that consumers bore a significant share of the increase.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The likely consequences include&nbsp;<strong>higher short-term inflation, pressure on household consumption and spillover effects for exporting economies<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The broader lesson is simple: when analysing an indirect tax, the key question is not who formally pays it, but&nbsp;<strong>who ultimately bears the cost<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-la-consommation\/consumption-in-europe-the-quest-for-enjoyment-holds-firm\">Discover the Cetelem Observatory Consumption 2025 study<\/a><\/strong><br>\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-la-consommation\/consumption-in-europe-the-quest-for-enjoyment-holds-firm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: France\u2019s long-distance coach market, ten years after liberalisation<\/a><\/strong><br>\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-april-2025-coaches-us-tariffs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the April 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A tariff is formally paid at the border by the importer. But that does not tell us&nbsp;who ultimately bears the economic cost a question economists refer to as&nbsp;tax incidence&nbsp;or, more specifically, tariff incidence. Three actors can absorb all or part of the shock: The distribution between them is neither fixed nor fully predictable in advance. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35651,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495,1496],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute","category-consumption-minute"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Tariffs: who really pays the final cost?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Importers pay tariffs at the border, but consumers may bear much of the final cost. 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