{"id":35893,"date":"2025-05-20T15:59:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-20T13:59:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35893"},"modified":"2026-08-24T14:29:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-24T12:29:39","slug":"france-long-distance-coaches-macron-law-train","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/france-long-distance-coaches-macron-law-train","title":{"rendered":"France\u2019s \u201cMacron coaches\u201d: why did the expected competition with rail never materialise?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The law of&nbsp;<strong>6 August 2015<\/strong>, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was France\u2019s Minister of the Economy, allowed private operators to run long-distance intercity coach services.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reform was heavily criticised at the time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The main concern was straightforward: low-cost coaches would draw passengers away from trains and weaken France\u2019s rail network.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten years later, the figures tell a very different story.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-distance coaches carried&nbsp;<strong>more than six million passengers in 2024<\/strong>, a record, with around&nbsp;<strong>seven million expected in 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time,&nbsp;<strong>SNCF has continued to reach very high and in several cases record passenger levels<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why did the expected substitution fail to materialise? Who are these millions of additional coach passengers? And what does the outcome tell us about the way new markets emerge?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Mobility Minute #6 | The 10th anniversary of a huge success, the Macron Buses\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/V4Iv2LPRoFM?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key figures for long-distance coaches in France<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 market liberalisation introduced by the law of&nbsp;<strong>6 August 2015<\/strong><br>\u2013 around&nbsp;<strong>100,000 passengers<\/strong>&nbsp;before the reform<br>\u2013 more than&nbsp;<strong>six million passengers in 2024<\/strong>, a record<br>\u2013 around&nbsp;<strong>seven million expected in 2025<\/strong><br>\u2013 passenger volumes multiplied by roughly&nbsp;<strong>60 in ten years<\/strong><br>\u2013 over the same period, rail passenger numbers also reached historically high levels<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The reform was judged using the wrong question<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The analytical mistake made in 2015 is worth examining because it illustrates a broader economic problem.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The debate was framed as a question of market share:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How many passengers would coaches take away from trains?<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This implicitly assumed that the total market for long-distance travel was fixed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If coaches gained passengers, trains would necessarily lose them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The subsequent figures suggest that this was the wrong way to frame the issue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coaches did not simply capture existing rail demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They appear to have&nbsp;<strong>unlocked latent demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moving from around 100,000 to more than six million passengers cannot easily be explained by a simple transfer from rail particularly because rail passenger numbers also increased.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reform therefore appears to have expanded the overall market for long-distance mobility rather than merely redistributing an existing pool of travellers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Who are these millions of coach passengers?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One plausible explanation is that many of these passengers previously travelled less often or did not make the trip at all.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-distance coaches occupy a particular position in the transport market:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>they are usually cheaper than rail.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Price rather than speed or comfort is therefore their key competitive advantage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This becomes especially relevant when considered alongside another household-spending indicator: around one in two French people do not take a summer holiday, mainly for budget reasons.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Long-distance coaches can operate precisely at this affordability threshold.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They are not necessarily aimed at passengers deciding between a high-speed train and a flight.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They can serve people for whom a more expensive transport option would make the journey unaffordable altogether.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two groups are particularly relevant:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013&nbsp;<strong>students and young adults<\/strong>, who often face tighter budgets while being more willing to accept longer journey times<br>\u2013&nbsp;<strong>lower-income households<\/strong>, for whom the price difference can determine whether the trip is possible at all<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/summer-holiday-budget-france-household-travel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: summer holiday budgets why one in two French people do not travel<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bus or coach: what is the difference?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In English, the distinction between&nbsp;<em>bus<\/em>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<em>coach<\/em>&nbsp;is useful here.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A&nbsp;<strong>bus<\/strong>&nbsp;is generally designed for shorter urban or local journeys and can allow passengers to stand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A&nbsp;<strong>coach<\/strong>&nbsp;is designed for longer-distance intercity travel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Passengers remain seated and the vehicle includes features better suited to longer journeys, such as:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 individual seats<br>\u2013 seat belts<br>\u2013 luggage compartments<br>\u2013 long-distance passenger facilities<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is why&nbsp;<strong>\u201clong-distance coach\u201d<\/strong>&nbsp;is the most accurate English translation for the French&nbsp;<em>car interurbain<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the ten-year record tells us<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three broader lessons emerge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A new offer can create demand rather than simply redistribute it<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When a need exists but the available products are too expensive, introducing a lower-cost option can reveal demand that was previously invisible.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market becomes larger rather than simply being divided differently.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Price determines access, not only preference<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The success of long-distance coaches is not necessarily explained by passengers considering them better than trains.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their main value is that&nbsp;<strong>they can make a journey financially possible<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Price is therefore not merely one criterion among others.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For some consumers, it determines whether they enter the market at all.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Cannibalisation forecasts need to be tested against reality<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The debate in 2015 largely assumed a zero-sum market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten years later, both coach and rail travel have grown.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The result is a useful reminder for other markets:&nbsp;<strong>a new entrant does not necessarily destroy demand for an existing product. It can enlarge the market by serving consumers who were previously excluded.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A similar lesson can be drawn from air travel, where predictions of permanent behavioural disruption after the pandemic also proved less reliable than expected.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; Long-distance coaches in France<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why did the liberalisation of long-distance coaches not hurt rail travel?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The evidence suggests that coaches unlocked additional demand rather\n      than simply taking existing passengers from trains. Rail passenger\n      numbers also remained strong and reached record levels over the same\n      broad period.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>How many passengers use long-distance coaches in France?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      More than six million passengers used long-distance coaches in 2024,\n      with around seven million expected in 2025, compared with roughly\n      100,000 before the 2015 reform.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Who uses long-distance coaches?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      They are particularly relevant for passengers for whom price determines\n      whether they can travel, including students, younger travellers and\n      households with more limited budgets.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What is the difference between a bus and a coach?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      A bus is generally designed for shorter urban or local journeys and may\n      carry standing passengers. A coach is designed for longer-distance\n      journeys, with passengers seated and facilities adapted to intercity\n      travel.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Which law liberalised long-distance coach travel in France?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The market was liberalised under the law of 6 August 2015, introduced\n      by Emmanuel Macron when he was Minister of the Economy.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ten years after the law of&nbsp;<strong>6 August 2015<\/strong>, France\u2019s long-distance coach market carried&nbsp;<strong>more than six million passengers in 2024<\/strong>, with around seven million expected in 2025, compared with approximately 100,000 before the reform.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The feared cannibalisation of rail did not materialise.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rail passenger numbers also remained strong and reached historically high levels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most plausible interpretation is therefore that liberalisation did not simply redistribute existing demand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>It helped unlock latent demand by making long-distance travel affordable to people who might otherwise not have travelled.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The broader lesson is significant:&nbsp;<strong>a new low-cost offer can expand a market rather than merely divide it.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-lautomobile\/5-ways-to-bounce-back\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Discover the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study<\/a><\/strong><br>\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/tariffs-who-pays-final-cost-consumers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: who really pays tariffs?<\/a><\/strong><br>\ud83d\udc49\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-april-2025-coaches-us-tariffs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the April 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The law of&nbsp;6 August 2015, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was France\u2019s Minister of the Economy, allowed private operators to run long-distance intercity coach services. The reform was heavily criticised at the time. The main concern was straightforward: low-cost coaches would draw passengers away from trains and weaken France\u2019s rail network. Ten years later, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35651,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495,1496],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35893","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute","category-consumption-minute"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Long-distance coaches in France: why didn\u2019t they take passengers away from trains?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"France\u2019s long-distance coach market grew from 100,000 passengers to more than six million without stopping rail traffic from reaching record levels.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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