{"id":35899,"date":"2025-03-24T10:01:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T09:01:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/?p=35899"},"modified":"2026-09-11T14:40:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T12:40:06","slug":"eu-co2-targets-carmakers-three-year-compliance-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/eu-co2-targets-carmakers-three-year-compliance-2025","title":{"rendered":"CO2 targets: why did the European Commission give carmakers three years?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In early March 2025, the&nbsp;<strong>European Commission<\/strong>&nbsp;announced greater flexibility in the way CO2 reduction targets would apply to European car manufacturers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of assessing compliance against the 2025 objective over a single year, manufacturers would be given&nbsp;<strong>three years over which to meet the targets<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The decision brought relief to an automotive industry facing the prospect of fines worth several billion euros.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Environmental organisations, however, criticised the move.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the heart of the debate was a simple market equation:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">to meet the original trajectory, fully electric vehicles would effectively have needed to represent around&nbsp;<strong>25% of new-car sales in 2025<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why was the gap between that figure and actual demand so large? Was the target achievable? And what did the decision signal about the future of Europe\u2019s automotive transition?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"iframe-wrapper\"><iframe title=\"Mobility Minute #5 | Relief for European car manufacturers\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qV1M3bsMd5A?feature=oembed\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key figures<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 European Commission decision announced in&nbsp;<strong>early March 2025<\/strong><br>\u2013 a&nbsp;<strong>three-year compliance period<\/strong>&nbsp;rather than assessment solely against 2025<br>\u2013 implied electric vehicle share required to meet the target: around&nbsp;<strong>25% of sales<\/strong><br>\u2013 potential fines for manufacturers:&nbsp;<strong>several billion euros<\/strong><br>\u2013 European new-car volumes remain below their&nbsp;<strong>2019 level<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A target that market demand was not yet reaching<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The gap between the regulatory trajectory and actual market conditions was not simply a short-term fluctuation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reaching an electric share of around 25% in 2025 would have required a sharp acceleration in adoption.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But actual demand remained significantly lower.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Battery-electric vehicles accounted for around&nbsp;<strong>15% of sales during 2025 at the time of the initial debate<\/strong>, eventually reaching&nbsp;<strong>17.4% across the full year in Europe<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, the trajectory required adoption to accelerate very rapidly while several of the main barriers to purchase remained:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 price<br>\u2013 charging access<br>\u2013 range concerns<br>\u2013 uncertainty over resale value<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This highlights a broader methodological issue.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A regulation targeting the&nbsp;<strong>composition of sales<\/strong>&nbsp;depends not only on what manufacturers produce but also on what consumers are willing and able to buy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A carmaker can bring more electric vehicles to market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It cannot directly force households to choose them.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/1-9-million-electric-cars-why-does-2025-mark-a-new-threshold-in-europe\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: electric cars in Europe 1.9 million registrations in 2025<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>An automotive industry already under pressure<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The wider market context was crucial.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">European new-car volumes had still not returned to their 2019 level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The pandemic did not simply create a temporary fall followed by a full recovery.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, the market settled at a lower level.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, manufacturers continued to face massive transition costs:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013 electrifying vehicle ranges<br>\u2013 battery investment<br>\u2013 manufacturing transformation<br>\u2013 distribution networks<br>\u2013 after-sales and servicing infrastructure<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Potential penalties worth several billion euros would therefore have been added to an industry already investing heavily while operating at reduced market volumes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This combination explains why manufacturers welcomed the Commission\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The environmental argument and the real point of disagreement<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Environmental organisations strongly criticised the greater flexibility.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Their argument is straightforward:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Delaying the effect of a target delays part of the incentive created by that target.<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If regulatory pressure is reduced in the short term, manufacturers may face less immediate pressure to increase electric vehicle sales, potentially slowing reductions in CO2 emissions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The underlying disagreement is therefore about&nbsp;<strong>how demand responds to regulation<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The case for strict targets<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supporters of strict regulation argue that pressure on manufacturers changes the market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It forces companies to increase supply, reduce prices and invest faster, which can ultimately accelerate consumer adoption.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The case for greater flexibility<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Supporters of the adjustment argue that regulation calibrated too far above effective consumer demand does not automatically produce more EV sales.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead, it may simply generate penalties for manufacturers when households are not yet ready to buy electric vehicles at the required rate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The two positions therefore depend on different assumptions about the&nbsp;<strong>price and behavioural elasticity of EV demand<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The debate remains open.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What the March 2025 decision foreshadowed<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With hindsight, the March decision can be seen as an early signal of a broader debate over Europe\u2019s automotive transition timetable.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Decision or development<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>March 2025<\/td><td>CO2 compliance rules eased through a three-year assessment period<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>October 2025<\/td><td>The 2035 combustion-engine phase-out itself faces growing political opposition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full-year 2025<\/td><td>Battery-electric cars reach 17.4% of European sales, still below the earlier 25% benchmark<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The March adjustment was therefore not necessarily an isolated technical change.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It became part of a wider discussion about&nbsp;<strong>how quickly Europe\u2019s automotive transition could realistically proceed<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-lautomobile\/cars-an-eternal-youth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Read also: why Europe\u2019s 2035 combustion-engine phase-out came under pressure<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<section class=\"faq\">\n  <h3>FAQ &#8211; EU automotive CO2 rules<\/h2>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why did the European Commission ease the CO2 rules for carmakers?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Because meeting the original 2025 trajectory would have required\n      electric vehicles to account for around 25% of sales, well above the\n      level of demand observed at the time. Manufacturers also faced potential\n      fines worth several billion euros.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What target were car manufacturers expected to meet?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      The 2025 CO2 reduction objective effectively required electric vehicles\n      to represent around 25% of new-car sales. The Commission subsequently\n      allowed compliance to be assessed over a three-year period.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why was the target difficult to reach?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      Sales targets depend on consumer behaviour as well as manufacturer\n      supply. Factors such as price, charging access, range and resale-value\n      uncertainty continued to limit electric vehicle demand.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>Why did environmental organisations oppose the decision?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      They argued that easing the short-term constraint could weaken incentives\n      to increase electric vehicle sales and potentially slow reductions in\n      CO2 emissions.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <div class=\"faq-item\">\n    <h4>What was the economic context for European carmakers?<\/h3>\n    <p>\n      European new-car sales remained below their 2019 level while\n      manufacturers were making major investments in electrification,\n      batteries, production and distribution.\n    <\/p>\n  <\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key takeaways<\/strong><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In early March 2025, the European Commission gave car manufacturers&nbsp;<strong>three years over which to meet CO2 reduction targets<\/strong>&nbsp;that had originally been assessed against 2025.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The initial trajectory effectively required electric vehicles to represent around&nbsp;<strong>25% of sales<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Actual demand remained significantly lower, at around 15% during part of 2025 and&nbsp;<strong>17.4% across the full year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Without greater flexibility, manufacturers faced potential fines worth several billion euros while European new-car volumes were still below their 2019 level and transition investment remained extremely high.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Environmental organisations criticised the decision, arguing that weaker short-term pressure could slow emissions reductions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With hindsight, the March decision also became an early sign of a broader European debate over the&nbsp;<strong>pace, credibility and economic feasibility of the automotive transition<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"container\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/lobservatoire-cetelem-de-lautomobile\/cars-an-eternal-youth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Discover the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2025 study<\/a><\/strong><br>?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/mobility-minute\/french-ecommerce-2024-transactions-services-growth\">Read also: French e-commerce in 2024<\/a><\/strong><br>?&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/personal-finance.bnpparibas\/en\/mobility-consumption-minute-march-2025-carmakers-ecommerce\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Back to the March 2025 Mobility &amp; Consumption Minute on BNP Paribas Personal Finance<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In early March 2025, the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;announced greater flexibility in the way CO2 reduction targets would apply to European car manufacturers. Instead of assessing compliance against the 2025 objective over a single year, manufacturers would be given&nbsp;three years over which to meet the targets. The decision brought relief to an automotive industry facing the prospect of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1981,"featured_media":35711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1495],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-35899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mobility-minute"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1981"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=35899"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35899\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35991,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35899\/revisions\/35991"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/35711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=35899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=35899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/observatoirecetelem.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=35899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}