2035 combustion-engine car phase-out: why is Europe’s transition roadmap under pressure?
On 18 April 2023, Europe approved the framework intended to bring sales of new combustion-engine cars to an end from 2035, as part of the European Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
Two and a half years later, the timetable was increasingly being questioned.
The debate was no longer simply about the principle of electrification, but about whether the transition could be achieved at the expected pace.
New-car sales remained weak across Europe, electric vehicles were gaining market share more slowly than anticipated, and political opposition was reaching the highest levels including an official call from the German Chancellor in early October for the 2035 framework to be reconsidered.
Why was the transition falling behind its expected trajectory? What does regulatory uncertainty cost the automotive industry? And why can unclear rules have such a powerful effect on motorists’ purchasing decisions?
Key figures on Europe’s 2035 automotive transition
Key takeaways:
– the 2035 framework was approved in April 2023 as part of the European Green Deal
– the objective applies to new combustion-engine cars from 2035
– the wider European objective is carbon neutrality by 2050
– at the time of the October 2025 analysis, battery-electric vehicles represented around 15% of new-car sales
– the expected trajectory at that point was closer to 25%
– this represented a gap of approximately 10 percentage points between market reality and the implied trajectory
For the full year 2025, battery-electric vehicles ultimately reached 17.4% of European new-car sales, representing approximately 1.9 million registrations.
This consolidated figure was higher than the share observed earlier in the year, but still well below the trajectory initially expected.
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Three factors putting the 2035 transition under pressure
1. Europe’s new-car market remains structurally weak
New-car sales in Europe remain at relatively low levels, creating difficulties throughout the automotive value chain.
This matters directly for the environmental transition.
A change in the composition of the car fleet depends on new vehicles entering the market and progressively replacing older ones.
If the new-car market remains weak, fleet renewal slows and so does real-world decarbonisation.
The composition of Europe’s existing vehicle fleet illustrates the scale of the challenge.
There are around 255 million cars on European roads, with an average age of approximately 12.5 years, while fully electric vehicles represent only around 2.3% of the existing fleet.
Changing new-car sales is one thing.
Transforming a stock of 255 million vehicles is another.
2. Electric vehicle adoption was around ten points behind the expected trajectory
At the time of the October 2025 analysis, electric cars accounted for around 15% of new-car sales, compared with an expected trajectory closer to 25%.
A ten-percentage-point gap is not simply a statistical difference.
It means that the actual pace of adoption was falling behind the path on which the 2035 deadline implicitly depended.
The wider the gap becomes, the greater the acceleration required later in the transition.
That creates significant challenges for manufacturers, infrastructure providers and consumers alike.
Over the full year, the electric share eventually reached 17.4%, showing continued progress but also confirming that the market remained significantly below the earlier 25% benchmark.
3. Political opposition has moved to the highest level
Calls to reconsider the 2035 framework have increasingly entered mainstream European political debate.
One of the most significant came from Germany, whose Chancellor called in early October for the policy to be reassessed.
Germany’s position carries particular weight.
It is Europe’s largest national automotive market and home to manufacturers whose industrial strategies and investments depend directly on the pace of the transition.
But the issue extends far beyond Germany.
Any change to the timetable or regulatory framework affects investment decisions throughout the European automotive industry.
The real cost of uncertainty: consumers wait
This is one of the most important effects of the debate and one that can be overlooked when attention focuses only on industrial policy.
Regulatory uncertainty does not only create problems for manufacturers. It can also freeze consumer demand.
For motorists, the choice becomes complicated.
Should they buy a combustion-engine vehicle that may lose value more quickly?
Should they buy an electric vehicle when subsidies, charging infrastructure and regulations continue to evolve?
Or should they simply wait?
For many households, postponing the purchase can become the rational response.
That wait-and-see behaviour has two reinforcing effects:
– it slows fleet renewal, delaying the replacement of older, higher-emission vehicles
– it keeps new-car sales weak, adding further pressure to the automotive industry
This creates a genuine paradox.
A regulatory framework designed to accelerate the transition can, if consumers become uncertain about how it will be applied, contribute to delaying purchasing decisions and slowing fleet renewal.
Consumer choices in 2025 also illustrate this search for compromise.
Hybrid vehicles remained the dominant powertrain category in Europe, accounting for around 44% of registrations more than twice the share of fully electric cars.
For many motorists, hybrid technology can represent an intermediate choice in a market where the final direction of travel feels clear but the transition path remains uncertain.
What the 2035 debate reveals about Europe’s car market
Three broader lessons emerge.
Regulatory visibility is an economic factor
Stable regulation is not only an environmental policy issue.
It directly influences investment by manufacturers, infrastructure providers and households.
When rules are expected to change, economic actors have an incentive to wait.
A regulatory trajectory must remain credible
Targets influence behaviour only if households and companies believe they can realistically be achieved.
A substantial gap between market adoption and the expected trajectory raises questions about how quickly the transition can be delivered.
Industrial health and environmental objectives are interconnected
Supporting the automotive industry and reducing emissions are not necessarily opposing objectives.
Without sufficient new-car sales, Europe’s existing vehicle fleet renews more slowly.
And without fleet renewal, replacing older combustion-engine vehicles with lower-emission alternatives also takes longer.
This is one of the central questions explored by the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study, which identifies five potential levers for supporting a recovery in the sector.
👉 Discover the Cetelem Observatory Automotive 2026 study
FAQ – Europe’s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out
Why is Europe’s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out being questioned?
Three factors are putting the roadmap under pressure: a persistently
weak new-car market, electric vehicle adoption below the expected
trajectory, and growing political opposition, particularly in Germany.
How large was the gap between electric vehicle sales and the expected trajectory?
At the time of the October 2025 analysis, fully electric cars
represented around 15% of European new-car sales, compared with a
trajectory closer to 25% a gap of approximately ten percentage points.
The full-year 2025 share ultimately reached 17.4%.
Why does regulatory uncertainty affect the automotive market?
Uncertainty encourages consumers to postpone purchases. If motorists
are unsure which powertrain to choose or how regulations and incentives
will evolve, keeping their existing vehicle for longer can become the
safest option.
Can regulatory uncertainty slow the environmental transition?
Yes. If uncertainty delays new-car purchases, fleet renewal also slows.
Older vehicles remain on the road for longer, delaying the replacement
of higher-emission cars.
When was the 2035 framework approved?
The European framework was approved in 2023 as part of the European
Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality
by 2050.
Why is Europe’s 2035 combustion-engine car phase-out being questioned?
Three factors are putting the roadmap under pressure: a persistently weak new-car market, electric vehicle adoption below the expected trajectory, and growing political opposition, particularly in Germany.
How large was the gap between electric vehicle sales and the expected trajectory?
At the time of the October 2025 analysis, fully electric cars represented around 15% of European new-car sales, compared with a trajectory closer to 25% a gap of approximately ten percentage points. The full-year 2025 share ultimately reached 17.4%.
Why does regulatory uncertainty affect the automotive market?
Uncertainty encourages consumers to postpone purchases. If motorists are unsure which powertrain to choose or how regulations and incentives will evolve, keeping their existing vehicle for longer can become the safest option.
Can regulatory uncertainty slow the environmental transition?
Yes. If uncertainty delays new-car purchases, fleet renewal also slows. Older vehicles remain on the road for longer, delaying the replacement of higher-emission cars.
When was the 2035 framework approved?
The European framework was approved in 2023 as part of the European Green Deal and the wider objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
Key takeaways
Europe’s framework to phase out sales of new combustion-engine cars from 2035 forms part of the broader European Green Deal and its objective of carbon neutrality by 2050.
By late 2025, three factors were putting that trajectory under pressure:
a persistently weak new-car market, electric vehicle adoption below the expected path, and growing political opposition at the highest level.
At the time of the October analysis, electric vehicles accounted for around 15% of new-car sales, compared with an expected trajectory closer to 25%. Over the full year, their share ultimately reached 17.4%, representing approximately 1.9 million vehicles.
But one of the most important consequences of the debate is not purely industrial.
Regulatory uncertainty can create wait-and-see behaviour among motorists, encouraging them to postpone vehicle purchases.
That slows fleet renewal and potentially slows the environmental transition the regulation was designed to accelerate.
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