When specifications are equal, 6 out of 10 motorists choose a cheaper foreign car.
he study confirms that car price remains the decisive factor for consumers:
- 40% rank it first for a new vehicle, and 52% for a used one.
- 60% would forgo a national brand if a foreign one is cheaper (except in Japan, China, and the United States, where local brands prevail).
Yet automotive patriotism endures:
- 1 in 2 Europeans would prefer a brand from their own country (peaking in France, Germany, and Italy).
- Young people (18-30 years old) are willing to pay 5-10% more for a locally made car.
- Europe as a safe haven: 60% would trust an unknown European brand over an Asian or American one (50%).
“Price is the ultimate arbiter, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. National brands enjoy a trust advantage, especially in times of crisis.” – Flavien Neuvy, Director of the Cetelem Observatory.
Concrete example:
- In France, 48% would choose a French brand at equal price, but only 30% if it’s 10% more expensive.
- In Germany, 53% opt for a local brand if the price is the same, but only 40% if it’s higher.
2. Impact of the Iran Crisis on 2027 Fuel Prices: How the Surge Is Accelerating Electric Car Purchases
With gasoline over €2/L, 1 in 2 motorists is considering an electric vehicle
The Iran crisis and its impact on oil prices have profoundly altered purchasing behavior:
- Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz (spring 2026) → 30% increase in oil prices over 6 months.
- Direct impact on fuel prices:
- Diesel: from €1.59/L to €2.05/L in the EU between February and April 2026.
- Gasoline: exceeds €1.85/L (peaking at €1.90 in July 2026).
Consequences for purchasing decisions:
- 50% of motorists reduce non-essential trips.
- 30% switch gas stations or fuel types to save money.
- 1 in 5 considers an electric or hybrid vehicle to avoid fuel price volatility.
Key data on electric cars:
- Increased purchase intent:
- 50% of potential buyers consider an electric/hybrid model (vs. 30% in 2025).
- Peaks in China (65%) and Italy (68%), but only 34% in the US.
- Brand perception:
- 62% associate electric cars with China (vs. 54% for Japan).
- In Europe, local brands (Renault, Volkswagen) remain preferred for their networks and after-sales service.
“The Iran crisis acted as a catalyst. Consumers no longer want to bear the brunt of geopolitical fuel price fluctuations. Electric vehicles are becoming an economic necessity.” – Flavien Neuvy.
3. French Car Price vs. Foreign Car Price: Does Automotive Protectionism Change the Game?
Tariffs, local subsidies… Who really protects motorists?
Protectionist measures are multiplying in 2027, with varying impacts on car prices and consumer choices:
| Country/Region | Automotive Protectionist Measure | Impact on Car Prices |
|---|---|---|
| European Union | Additional tariffs (+17% to +35%) on Chinese EVs | 10-20% price increase for Chinese models (e.g., MG, BYD). |
| United States | 100% tariffs on Chinese cars | Near-total exclusion of Chinese brands (except Tesla, locally produced). |
| France | Purchase incentives limited to low-carbon EVs | Advantage for Renault, Peugeot, Citroën (excludes Dacia Spring, MG). |
| China | EV production quotas (48% in 2026) + tax exemptions | Market dominance (13.4M EVs sold in 2025). |
Unintended consequences:
- Higher car prices for consumers (e.g., MG4 costs 15% more in Europe than in the US).
- Risk of shortages in certain segments (e.g., affordable EVs in Europe).
- Competitive advantage for local brands… but at the expense of purchasing power.
Case study: France
- 38% of sales go to Renault, Peugeot, Citroën (vs. 25% for foreign brands).
- But average prices for French EVs (Renault Mégane E-Tech at €40,000) remain unaffordable for 60% of households.
4. 2027 Car Prices: How to Balance Budget, Patriotism, and Geopolitics?
Summary of Trends and 2028 Outlook
- Car price prevails… but automotive patriotism persists (especially among young people and in major manufacturing countries).
- The Iran crisis accelerates the electric transition… out of economic necessity rather than environmental conviction.
- Automotive protectionism protects local brands… but at the cost of purchasing power.
2028 Outlook:
- If oil prices remain high → Surge in electric car sales (especially in China and Europe).
- If geopolitical tensions ease → Partial return to combustion engines, but with increased preference for local brands (“reassurance” effect).
- The big winner? European manufacturers (Volkswagen, Renault, Stellantis) that combine competitive pricing, strong networks, and patriotic appeal.
“In 2027, motorists are strategists: balancing their wallets, values, and geopolitical risks. Brands that can reconcile competitiveness, proximity, and crisis resilience will have a decisive edge.” – Flavien Neuvy.
5. Cetelem Observatory 2027 Key Figures: Car Prices, Automotive Patriotism, and Iran Crisis Impact
| Indicator | 2027 Data |
|---|---|
| Car price as top criterion | 40% (new) / 52% (used) |
| Preference for national brand | 1 in 5 on average (1 in 2 in France, China, US) |
| Premium accepted for local car | 5-10% for 40% of motorists (90% of 18-30 year-olds) |
| Iran crisis impact on gasoline | +€0.46/L in 6 months (April 2026) |
| Electric car purchase intent | 50% of potential buyers (vs. 30% in 2025) |
| EV market share in China | 53% of sales (8.2M vehicles in 2025) |
| EU tariffs on Chinese EVs | +17% to +35% (on top of existing 10%) |
About BNP Paribas Personal Finance and the Cetelem Observatory
BNP Paribas Personal Finance, a subsidiary of BNP Paribas, is a leading consumer credit provider in Europe.
The Cetelem Observatory, established in 1985, is a benchmark in consumer behavior and mobility studies. Directed by Flavien Neuvy, it publishes two annual international reports, including one on automotive trends, based on surveys in 16 countries.
