France’s “Macron coaches”: why did the expected competition with rail never materialise?
The law of 6 August 2015, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was France’s Minister of the Economy, allowed private operators to run long-distance intercity coach services.
The reform was heavily criticised at the time.
The main concern was straightforward: low-cost coaches would draw passengers away from trains and weaken France’s rail network.
Ten years later, the figures tell a very different story.
Long-distance coaches carried more than six million passengers in 2024, a record, with around seven million expected in 2025.
At the same time, SNCF has continued to reach very high and in several cases record passenger levels.
Why did the expected substitution fail to materialise? Who are these millions of additional coach passengers? And what does the outcome tell us about the way new markets emerge?
Key figures for long-distance coaches in France
Key takeaways:
– market liberalisation introduced by the law of 6 August 2015
– around 100,000 passengers before the reform
– more than six million passengers in 2024, a record
– around seven million expected in 2025
– passenger volumes multiplied by roughly 60 in ten years
– over the same period, rail passenger numbers also reached historically high levels
The reform was judged using the wrong question
The analytical mistake made in 2015 is worth examining because it illustrates a broader economic problem.
The debate was framed as a question of market share:
How many passengers would coaches take away from trains?
This implicitly assumed that the total market for long-distance travel was fixed.
If coaches gained passengers, trains would necessarily lose them.
The subsequent figures suggest that this was the wrong way to frame the issue.
Coaches did not simply capture existing rail demand.
They appear to have unlocked latent demand.
Moving from around 100,000 to more than six million passengers cannot easily be explained by a simple transfer from rail particularly because rail passenger numbers also increased.
The reform therefore appears to have expanded the overall market for long-distance mobility rather than merely redistributing an existing pool of travellers.
Who are these millions of coach passengers?
One plausible explanation is that many of these passengers previously travelled less often or did not make the trip at all.
Long-distance coaches occupy a particular position in the transport market:
they are usually cheaper than rail.
Price rather than speed or comfort is therefore their key competitive advantage.
This becomes especially relevant when considered alongside another household-spending indicator: around one in two French people do not take a summer holiday, mainly for budget reasons.
Long-distance coaches can operate precisely at this affordability threshold.
They are not necessarily aimed at passengers deciding between a high-speed train and a flight.
They can serve people for whom a more expensive transport option would make the journey unaffordable altogether.
Two groups are particularly relevant:
– students and young adults, who often face tighter budgets while being more willing to accept longer journey times
– lower-income households, for whom the price difference can determine whether the trip is possible at all
Bus or coach: what is the difference?
In English, the distinction between bus and coach is useful here.
A bus is generally designed for shorter urban or local journeys and can allow passengers to stand.
A coach is designed for longer-distance intercity travel.
Passengers remain seated and the vehicle includes features better suited to longer journeys, such as:
– individual seats
– seat belts
– luggage compartments
– long-distance passenger facilities
This is why “long-distance coach” is the most accurate English translation for the French car interurbain.
What the ten-year record tells us
Three broader lessons emerge.
A new offer can create demand rather than simply redistribute it
When a need exists but the available products are too expensive, introducing a lower-cost option can reveal demand that was previously invisible.
The market becomes larger rather than simply being divided differently.
Price determines access, not only preference
The success of long-distance coaches is not necessarily explained by passengers considering them better than trains.
Their main value is that they can make a journey financially possible.
Price is therefore not merely one criterion among others.
For some consumers, it determines whether they enter the market at all.
Cannibalisation forecasts need to be tested against reality
The debate in 2015 largely assumed a zero-sum market.
Ten years later, both coach and rail travel have grown.
The result is a useful reminder for other markets: a new entrant does not necessarily destroy demand for an existing product. It can enlarge the market by serving consumers who were previously excluded.
A similar lesson can be drawn from air travel, where predictions of permanent behavioural disruption after the pandemic also proved less reliable than expected.
FAQ – Long-distance coaches in France
Why did the liberalisation of long-distance coaches not hurt rail travel?
The evidence suggests that coaches unlocked additional demand rather
than simply taking existing passengers from trains. Rail passenger
numbers also remained strong and reached record levels over the same
broad period.
How many passengers use long-distance coaches in France?
More than six million passengers used long-distance coaches in 2024,
with around seven million expected in 2025, compared with roughly
100,000 before the 2015 reform.
Who uses long-distance coaches?
They are particularly relevant for passengers for whom price determines
whether they can travel, including students, younger travellers and
households with more limited budgets.
What is the difference between a bus and a coach?
A bus is generally designed for shorter urban or local journeys and may
carry standing passengers. A coach is designed for longer-distance
journeys, with passengers seated and facilities adapted to intercity
travel.
Which law liberalised long-distance coach travel in France?
The market was liberalised under the law of 6 August 2015, introduced
by Emmanuel Macron when he was Minister of the Economy.
Why did the liberalisation of long-distance coaches not hurt rail travel?
The evidence suggests that coaches unlocked additional demand rather than simply taking existing passengers from trains. Rail passenger numbers also remained strong and reached record levels over the same broad period.
How many passengers use long-distance coaches in France?
More than six million passengers used long-distance coaches in 2024, with around seven million expected in 2025, compared with roughly 100,000 before the 2015 reform.
Who uses long-distance coaches?
They are particularly relevant for passengers for whom price determines whether they can travel, including students, younger travellers and households with more limited budgets.
What is the difference between a bus and a coach?
A bus is generally designed for shorter urban or local journeys and may carry standing passengers. A coach is designed for longer-distance journeys, with passengers seated and facilities adapted to intercity travel.
Which law liberalised long-distance coach travel in France?
The market was liberalised under the law of 6 August 2015, introduced by Emmanuel Macron when he was Minister of the Economy.
Key takeaways
Ten years after the law of 6 August 2015, France’s long-distance coach market carried more than six million passengers in 2024, with around seven million expected in 2025, compared with approximately 100,000 before the reform.
The feared cannibalisation of rail did not materialise.
Rail passenger numbers also remained strong and reached historically high levels.
The most plausible interpretation is therefore that liberalisation did not simply redistribute existing demand.
It helped unlock latent demand by making long-distance travel affordable to people who might otherwise not have travelled.
The broader lesson is significant: a new low-cost offer can expand a market rather than merely divide it.
