Slight Breeze of Optimism in Europe for 2026

MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT: IMPROVEMENT IN THE EURO ZONE

After holding up well in 2025 (1.5%), growth in the Eurozone should strengthen in 2026 (+1.6%) according to forecasts from BNP PARIBAS economic research. GDP growth of 1.4% in Germany in 2026 and increased military spending in Europe will help to sustain economic growth.

In addition, the buoyancy of the labour market combined with inflation that is likely to remain below the 2% target will also be factors supporting European morale and household consumption.

Against this backdrop, Spain will remain the driving force behind the Eurozone’s main economies, with growth expected to be well above 2%.

In France, supported by a revival in aerospace production and exports, as well as by investment from nonfinancial companies, growth is expected to rise from +0.8% in 2025 to +1.1% this year.

Disinflation is now clear, continuing in 2025 (1% on average compared with 2.3% in 2024 according to the harmonised index), which for the moment has not led to an acceleration in household consumption growth or a fall in the household savings rate.

SITUATION IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES: A STABLE OPINION

For the past two years, despite the international crises that have had a lasting impact on people’s minds, the score given to the current situation in the survey’s different countries has remained remarkably stable. For the second year running, it averages at 5.2 for the 10 countries included in this Observatoire Cetelem 2026, following the score of 5.1 recorded for the 2024 edition. France came in at a low 4.7, up 0.1 points but still well below the European average.

However, there were significant variations from one country to another. Romania saw the sharpest fall (-0.6 points) against a backdrop of political tension, marked by the cancellation of the presidential elections at the beginning of the year. Conversely, Spain, Poland, Portugal and, to a lesser extent, Italy, rode the wave of their good economic results to record a significant rise in this rating.

Since the Covid-19 period, there have also been significant changes. Germany was the most optimistic country at the time, with a score of 6.6, but has seen the sharpest drop (-1.4 points), and is now in the middle of the pack (5.2). This points to a deep crisis from which it is struggling to emerge. At the other end of the scale, Spain and Poland bounced back by 0.5 points, the latter country even becoming the most optimistic about its situation after Sweden.

PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES: STILL IN GOOD SPIRITS

As usual, the score given to people’s own personal circumstances was more flattering, up slightly by 0.1 points since last year, now reaching 6.1. The trend is positive in 7 out of 10 countries, particularly Poland and Portugal (+0.4 and +0.3 points).

Once again, Romania saw the biggest drop (-0.5 points). The problems with the old and dilapidated urban heating system, which affects many inhabitants personally, undoubtedly have a direct impact on the way Romanians feel. The score was also down in Germany, which now occupies the penultimate place in the ranking. Over the long term, Germans once again stood out for their pessimism, with -0.6 points recorded since the Covid-19 period. The Portuguese and the French showed the biggest increase in morale over the same period (+0.3 points).

A POORER FINANCIAL SITUATION THAN THE MAJORITY

The discrepancy between people’s satisfaction with their country’s situation and with their personal circumstances leads Europeans to be cautious about their financial situation. Only a quarter of them thought it was better than that of the majority of other inhabitants. 40% saw no difference. 34% considered it inferior.

While the Germans were the most likely to report a negative gap, they were also the most likely to see a positive one. The Romanians, Swedes, French and Spanish were the most critical, while the British and Poles were both optimistic.

It should be noted, however, that the feeling that one’s income is lower than that of the majority has been declining over the last 10 years.

SPENDING POWER IN DECLINE

In roughly comparable proportions, Europeans are experiencing the opposite trend when it comes to their spending power. 40% of respondents said it had fallen over the last 12 months (+1 point). Around half of Romanians (+15 points) and French people (-1 point) said they were now faced with this reality, while Poles (-3 points), Swedes (-2 points) and British people (-1 point) were less aware of it.A closer look at the results recorded since the health crisis reveals clear, contrasting trends. Despite a score that remains very high, over this period, the French were the most likely to notice a decline in the feeling that their spending power had decreased (-12 points), with the Belgians the only Europeans who were also positive on this subject (-5 points). Conversely, Romanians and Germans were more pessimistic (+21 points and +20 points respectively).

THE GHOST OF INFLATION IS STILL FRIGHTENING

Having now returned to around 2% a year, inflation is no longer an economic problem in Europe. However, its ghost still haunts European consumers. Nearly 1 in 2 believe that prices have increased significantly over the past year (+3 points), with almost 9 out of 10 seeing them increase. Let us give credit to the Romanians, who are the most likely to rail against a sharp rise in prices (76%, +11 points), for being in tune with the economic reality in their country, where inflation is running at over 7%. The same goes for the British (also up 11 points), who are still experiencing some price hikes. On the other hand, more Spanish and Italian citizens than last year think that prices have increased significantly, even though inflation in their country is under control. What about the French? Along with the Belgians, the French show more restraint. These attitudes have remained constant over time in both countries.

READY TO CONSUME

With spending power holding up and spirits rising slightly, it is hardly surprising to see an increase in buying intentions. 45% of Europeans said they wanted to increase their spending this year, compared with 43% in 2025.

With the exception of Romania, France and Italy, this score is up in all countries.

However, the Romanians are the most inclined to give in to consumerist temptation, with Belgians and Poles also ready to do so. It should be noted that ‘spenders’ are in the majority only in these three countries. Conversely, the Germans and Swedes intended to show restraint, closely followed by the French and Portuguese. Over the long term, the British, Portuguese, Belgians and French stood out as showing an increase in their desire to consume.

EVER HIGHER SAVINGS

With crisis after crisis having emerged in recent years, the subject of savings has constantly been in the news, as people are saving at levels rarely seen before. Overall, 2025 was no exception to the rule.

The savings rate remained very high, particularly in Germany, France and Sweden. Moreover, there is nothing to suggest that we will see a significant fall in savings levels in 2026.

In fact, the Europeans surveyed for this Observatoire Cetelem showed strong saving intentions: 56% wanted to increase their savings, compared with 55% last year. In all countries, this was the view of the majority, with the exception of Belgium and France, which is, however, one of the most ‘economical’ countries in Europe. This cautious approach to finance was highest, by a significant margin, in a group of five nations made up of Poland, Portugal, Romania, the United Kingdom and Sweden.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SENIOR CITIZENS BAROMETER

As was the case 10 years ago, this edition of the Observatoire Cetelem for 2026 is devoted specifically to senior citizens. Let us take a look at the views of the over-60s on the topics covered by the Cetelem Barometer.

Seniors were more pessimistic about the situation in their country, with a score of 4.5, well below the overall average (5.2) and that given by all other generations.
The gap is narrower when it comes to personal circumstances, although the score is still lower than that given by Europeans as a whole (5.9 vs. 6.1).
45 % des séniors pour juger que leur situation financière est inférieure à celle de la moitié des habitants de leur pays, soit deux fois plus que les 18-49 ans.
More than 1 in 2 senior citizens reported a fall in spending power, compared with the average of 4 in 10.
Almost all seniors (94%) agreed that prices had increased in recent months, with 1 in 2 believing they had increased significantly.
Just over a third of seniors wanted to spend more, a figure well below the average and which significantly differs from the intentions of younger generations.
Intentions to save were well below the average (36% vs 56%), and below those of other generations.